Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)
ERTAF is published! https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0188.1
| Dates | Forecast | Confidence | |
| Week 2 | 5-24-20 to 5-30-20 | A | Low |
| Week 3 | NA |
Issued 5-18-2020 at 8:42 PM CDT
ERTAF 2020 has concluded.
An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.
|
FCSTDATE |
FCST2START |
FCST2END |
FCST3START |
FCST3END |
CLIMO2 |
CLIMO3 |
ACT2 |
ACT3 |
PN2 |
PN3 |
ACT2C |
ACT3C |
FCST2 |
FCST3 |
VERF2 |
VERF3 |
|
| 3/1/2020 | 3/8/2020 | 3/14/2020 | 3/15/2020 | 3/21/2020 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 26 | 64% | 216% | A | AA | A | A | 1 | 0 | |
| 3/8/2020 | 3/15/2020 | 3/21/2020 | 3/22/2020 | 3/28/2020 | 12 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 216% | 135% | AA | A | AA | A | 1 | 1 | |
| 3/15/2020 | 3/22/2020 | 3/28/2020 | 3/29/2020 | 4/4/2020 | 20 | 27 | 27 | 18 | 135% | 67% | A | A | A | A | 1 | 1 | |
| 3/22/2020 | 3/29/2020 | 4/4/2020 | 4/5/2020 | 4/11/2020 | 27 | 33 | 18 | 23 | 67% | 70% | A | A | BA | BA | 0 | 0 | |
| 3/29/2020 | 4/5/2020 | 4/11/2020 | 4/12/2020 | 4/18/2020 | 33 | 37 | 23 | 188 | 70% | 508% | A | AA | BA | A | 0 | 0 | |
| 4/5/2020 | 4/12/2020 | 4/18/2020 | 4/19/2020 | 4/25/2020 | 37 | 43 | 188 | 107 | 508% | 249% | AA | AA | BA | AA | -1 | 1 | |
| 4/12/2020 | 4/19/2020 | 4/25/2020 | 4/26/2020 | 5/2/2020 | 43 | 58 | 107 | 5 | 249% | 9% | AA | BA | AA | A | 1 | 0 | |
| 4/19/2020 | 4/26/2020 | 5/2/2020 | 5/3/2020 | 5/9/2020 | 58 | 64 | 5 | 8 | 9% | 13% | BA | BA | BA | A | 1 | 0 | |
| 4/26/2020 | 5/3/2020 | 5/9/2020 | 5/10/2020 | 5/16/2020 | 64 | 57 | 8 | 24 | 13% | 42% | BA | BA | A | AA | 0 | -1 | |
| 5/3/2020 | 5/10/2020 | 5/16/2020 | 5/17/2020 | 5/23/2020 | 57 | 53 | 24 | 42% | BA | BA | A | 1 | |||||
| 5/10/2020 | 5/17/2020 | 5/23/2020 | 5/24/2020 | 5/30/2020 | 53 | 68 | AA | A | |||||||||
| 5/17/2020 | 5/24/2020 | 5/30/2020 | N/A | N/A | 68 | A | |||||||||||
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All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.
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Verification Legend |
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-1 |
0 |
1 |
|
More than 50%
of Normal Error |
No More than
50% of Normal Error |
Correct % of Normal
Threshold |
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Forecast & Verification Archive : 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
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An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.
Who's
looking at ERTAF?
Historical Contributors: John Allen | Brad Barrett | Victor Gensini | David Gold | Alan Marinaro | Paul Sirvatka | Mike Ventrice