Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)
ERTAF 2019 has concluded!
An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.
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FCSTDATE |
FCST2START |
FCST2END |
FCST3START |
FCST3END |
CLIMO2 |
CLIMO3 |
ACT2 |
ACT3 |
PN2 |
PN3 |
ACT2C |
ACT3C |
FCST2 |
FCST3 |
VERF2 |
VERF3 |
|
| 3/3/2019 | 3/10/2019 | 3/16/2019 | 3/17/2019 | 3/23/2019 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 3 | 341% | 21% | AA | BA | AA | A | 1 | 0 | |
| 3/10/2019 | 3/17/2019 | 3/23/2019 | 3/24/2019 | 3/30/2019 | 14 | 23 | 3 | 6 | 21% | 26% | BA | BA | BA | BA | 1 | 1 | |
| 3/17/2019 | 3/24/2019 | 3/30/2019 | 3/31/2019 | 4/6/2019 | 23 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 26% | 0% | BA | BA | BA | A | 1 | 0 | |
| 3/24/2019 | 3/31/2019 | 4/6/2019 | 4/7/2019 | 4/13/2019 | 23 | 32 | 0 | 33 | 0% | 103% | BA | A | BA | BA | 1 | 0 | |
| 3/31/2019 | 4/7/2019 | 4/13/2019 | 4/14/2019 | 4/20/2019 | 32 | 42 | 33 | 80 | 103% | 190% | A | AA | BA | BA | 0 | -1 | |
| 4/7/2019 | 4/14/2019 | 4/20/2019 | 4/21/2019 | 4/27/2019 | 42 | 51 | 80 | 17 | 190% | 33% | AA | BA | BA | BA | -1 | 1 | |
| 4/14/2019 | 4/21/2019 | 4/27/2019 | 4/28/2019 | 5/4/2019 | 51 | 45 | 17 | 80 | 33% | 177% | BA | AA | A | A | 0 | 0 | |
| 4/21/2019 | 4/28/2019 | 5/4/2019 | 5/5/2019 | 5/11/2019 | 45 | 69 | 80 | 67 | 177% | 97% | AA | A | BA | A | -1 | 1 | |
| 4/28/2019 | 5/5/2019 | 5/11/2019 | 5/12/2019 | 5/18/2019 | 69 | 51 | 67 | 54 | 97% | 106% | A | A | A | A | 1 | 1 | |
| 5/5/2019 | 5/12/2019 | 5/18/2019 | 5/19/2019 | 5/25/2019 | 51 | 59 | 54 | 168 | 106% | 285% | A | AA | A | AA | 1 | 1 | |
| 5/12/2019 | 5/19/2019 | 5/25/2019 | 5/26/2019 | 6/1/2019 | 59 | 61 | 168 | 192 | 285% | 314% | AA | AA | AA | A | 1 | 0 | |
| 5/19/2019 | 5/26/2019 | 6/1/2019 | 6/2/2019 | 6/8/2019 | 61 | 64 | 192 | 65 | 314% | 101% | AA | A | A | A | 0 | 1 | |
| 5/26/2019 | 6/2/2019 | 6/8/2019 | 6/9/2019 | 6/15/2019 | 64 | 54 | 65 | 45 | 101% | 83% | A | A | A | A | 1 | 1 | |
| 6/2/2019 | 6/9/2019 | 6/15/2019 | 6/16/2019 | 6/22/2019 | 54 | 51 | 45 | 54 | 83% | 105% | A | A | A | A | 1 | 1 | |
| 6/9/2019 | 6/16/2019 | 6/22/2019 | 6/23/2019 | 6/29/2019 | 51 | 41 | 54 | 33 | 105% | 80% | A | A | A | A | 1 | 1 | |
| 6/16/2019 | 6/23/2019 | 6/29/2019 | NA | NA | 41 | NA | 33 | 80% | A | AA | 0 | ||||||
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All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.
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Verification Legend |
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-1 |
0 |
1 |
|
More than 50%
of Normal Error |
No More than
50% of Normal Error |
Correct % of Normal
Threshold |
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Forecast & Verification Archive : 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
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An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.
Who's
looking at ERTAF?
Historical Contributors: John Allen | Brad Barrett | Victor Gensini | David Gold | Alan Marinaro | Paul Sirvatka | Mike Ventrice