Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)

  Dates Forecast Confidence
Week 2 4-5-20 to 4-11-20 BA Medium
Week 3 4-12-20 to 4-18-20 A Low


Issued 3-29-2020 at 9:40 PM CDT

No areal outlook this week due to BA conditions expected

The next ERTAF is scheduled to be issued 4-5-2020 by 10 PM CDT.

An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.

FCSTDATE

FCST2START

FCST2END

FCST3START

FCST3END

CLIMO2

CLIMO3

ACT2

ACT3

PN2

PN3

ACT2C

ACT3C

FCST2

FCST3

VERF2

VERF3

3/1/2020 3/8/2020 3/14/2020 3/15/2020 3/21/2020 11 12 7 26 64% 216% A AA A A 1 0
3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/21/2020 3/22/2020 3/28/2020 12 20 26 25 216% 125% AA A AA A 1 1
3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/28/2020 3/29/2020 4/4/2020 20 27     125%   A   A A 1  
3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/4/2020 4/5/2020 4/11/2020 27 33             BA BA    
3/29/2020 4/5/2020 4/11/2020 4/12/2020 4/18/2020 33 34             BA      

 

All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.

 

 

Forecast Discussion:  This week's forecast was somewhat easier than the Day 1 convective forecast for 3/28/2020 :-)

 

Continued split flow throughout weeks 1 and 2 should mitigate the CONUS severe weather threat during a time of building AAM. BA conditions appear to be warranted for week 2 with medium to low confidence. Another modest 8-1-2 transition is expected to occur as early as late week 2 and early week three. For this reason, will introduce A conditions and consider trends for next week's week 2 forecast. 


Forecasters:   Gensini, Allen, Sirvatka, Gold

 

 

Verification Legend

-1

0

1

More than 50% of Normal Error

No More than 50% of Normal Error

Correct % of Normal Threshold

Forecast & Verification Archive : 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |

An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.

Who's looking at ERTAF?
 Map

 

Historical Contributors:  John Allen  |  Brad Barrett  |  Victor Gensini  |  David Gold  |  Alan Marinaro  |  Paul Sirvatka Mike Ventrice

 

© 2015-2019  Victor Gensini