Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)
Contributors:
John Allen | Brad Barrett |
Victor Gensini | David Gold
| Alan Marinaro | Paul Sirvatka
If you are interested in contributing to the discussions and forecasts each week, please contact Victor (vgensini at niu dot edu)
Explanation of column headers:
|
FCSTDATE |
FCST2START |
FCST2END |
FCST3START |
FCST3END |
CLIMO2 |
CLIMO3 |
ACT2 |
ACT3 |
PN2 |
PN3 |
ACT2C |
ACT3C |
FCST2 |
FCST3 |
VERF2 |
VERF3 |
|
Date of forecast issuance |
Week 2 forecast start date |
Week 2 forecast end date |
Week 3 forecast start date |
Week 3
forecast end date |
Average number of tornadoes during week 2, 1985-2014 |
Average number of tornadoes during week 3, 1985-2014 |
Preliminary number of tornadoes reported during week 2 |
Preliminary number of tornadoes reported during week 3 |
Percent of normal during week 2 (ACT2/CLIMO2) |
Percent of normal during week 3 (ACT3/CLIMO3) |
Prelim number of tornadoes week 2, converted to
BA | A | AA |
Prelim number of tornadoes week 3, converted to
BA | A | AA |
Categorical forecast for week 2 |
Categorical forecast for week 3 |
Categorical
verification for week 2 |
Categorical
verification for week 3 |
BA
= Below Average (less than 75% of normal)
A = Average (75-125% of normal)
AA = Above Average (greater than 125% of
normal)
P = Verification statistics pending for
this time period
|
Verification Legend |
||
|
-1 |
0 |
1 |
|
More than 50%
of Normal Error |
No More than
50% of Normal Error |
Correct % of
Normal Threshold |