Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)

        Confidence
Week 2 Forecast 6-24-18 to 6-30-18 Below Average ↓ Medium
Week 3 Forecast ERTAF concludes!      

 

Week 2 Outlook Graphic


Forecast updated on 18 June 2018 8:00 AM CDT

ERTAF 2018 has concluded!

An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.

FCSTDATE

FCST2START

FCST2END

FCST3START

FCST3END

CLIMO2

CLIMO3

ACT2

ACT3

PN2

PN3

ACT2C

ACT3C

FCST2

FCST3

VERF2

VERF3
3/4/2018 3/11/2018 3/17/2018 3/18/2018 3/24/2018 15 14 2 31 13% 221% BA AA BA AA 1 1
3/11/2018 3/18/2018 3/24/2018 3/25/2018 3/31/2018 14 23 31 18 221% 78% AA A AA AA 1 0
3/18/2018 3/25/2018 3/31/2018 4/1/2018 4/7/2018 23 26 18 41 78% 158% A AA A A 1 0
3/25/2018 4/1/2018 4/7/2018 4/8/2018 4/14/2018 26 34 41 33 158% 97% AA A BA BA -1 0
4/1/2018 4/8/2018 4/14/2018 4/15/2018 4/21/2018 34 40 33 19 97% 48% A BA BA A 0 0
4/8/2018 4/15/2018 4/21/2018 4/22/2018 4/28/2018 40 54 19 12 48% 22% BA BA BA A 1 0
4/15/2018 4/22/2018 4/28/2018 4/29/2018 5/5/2018 54 47 12 45 22% 96% BA A BA A 1 1
4/22/2018 4/29/2018 5/5/2018 5/6/2018 5/12/2018 47 64 45 6 96% 9% A BA A A 1 0
4/29/2018 5/6/2018 5/12/2018 5/13/2018 5/19/2018 64 53 6 30 9% 57% BA BA BA A 1 0
5/6/2018 5/13/2018 5/19/2018 5/20/2018 5/26/2018 53 60 30 12 57% 20% BA BA BA A 1 0
5/13/2018 5/20/2018 5/26/2018 5/27/2018 6/2/2018 60 63 12 78 20% 124% BA A BA BA 1 0
5/20/2018 5/27/2018 6/2/2018 6/3/2018 6/9/2018 63 63 78 21 124% 33% A BA BA BA 0 1
5/27/2018 6/3/2018 6/9/2018 6/10/2018 6/16/2018 63 56 21 19 33% 34% BA   BA BA 1 1
6/3/2018 6/10/2018 6/16/2018 6/17/2018 6/23/2018 56 47 19   34%       BA BA 1  
6/10/2018 6/17/2018 6/23/2018 6/24/2018 6/30/2018 47 42             BA BA    
6/17/2018 6/24/2018 6/30/2018     42               BA      

 

All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.

 

 

Forecast Discussion: Below average.

Forecasters:   Gensini

 

 

Verification Legend

-1

0

1

More than 50% of Normal Error

No More than 50% of Normal Error

Correct % of Normal Threshold

Forecast & Verification Archive : 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |

An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.

Who's looking at ERTAF?
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Historical Contributors:  John Allen  |  Brad Barrett  |  Victor Gensini  |  David Gold  |  Alan Marinaro  |  Paul Sirvatka |  Mike Ventrice

 

© 2015-2018  Victor Gensini