Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF)
Confidence | ||||
Week 2 Forecast | 6-24-18 to 6-30-18 | Below Average | ↓ | Medium |
Week 3 Forecast | ERTAF concludes! |
Forecast updated on 18 June 2018 8:00 AM CDT
ERTAF 2018 has concluded!
An information page with explanation of statistics below can be found here.
FCSTDATE |
FCST2START |
FCST2END |
FCST3START |
FCST3END |
CLIMO2 |
CLIMO3 |
ACT2 |
ACT3 |
PN2 |
PN3 |
ACT2C |
ACT3C |
FCST2 |
FCST3 |
VERF2 |
VERF3 |
|
3/4/2018 | 3/11/2018 | 3/17/2018 | 3/18/2018 | 3/24/2018 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 31 | 13% | 221% | BA | AA | BA | AA | 1 | 1 | |
3/11/2018 | 3/18/2018 | 3/24/2018 | 3/25/2018 | 3/31/2018 | 14 | 23 | 31 | 18 | 221% | 78% | AA | A | AA | AA | 1 | 0 | |
3/18/2018 | 3/25/2018 | 3/31/2018 | 4/1/2018 | 4/7/2018 | 23 | 26 | 18 | 41 | 78% | 158% | A | AA | A | A | 1 | 0 | |
3/25/2018 | 4/1/2018 | 4/7/2018 | 4/8/2018 | 4/14/2018 | 26 | 34 | 41 | 33 | 158% | 97% | AA | A | BA | BA | -1 | 0 | |
4/1/2018 | 4/8/2018 | 4/14/2018 | 4/15/2018 | 4/21/2018 | 34 | 40 | 33 | 19 | 97% | 48% | A | BA | BA | A | 0 | 0 | |
4/8/2018 | 4/15/2018 | 4/21/2018 | 4/22/2018 | 4/28/2018 | 40 | 54 | 19 | 12 | 48% | 22% | BA | BA | BA | A | 1 | 0 | |
4/15/2018 | 4/22/2018 | 4/28/2018 | 4/29/2018 | 5/5/2018 | 54 | 47 | 12 | 45 | 22% | 96% | BA | A | BA | A | 1 | 1 | |
4/22/2018 | 4/29/2018 | 5/5/2018 | 5/6/2018 | 5/12/2018 | 47 | 64 | 45 | 6 | 96% | 9% | A | BA | A | A | 1 | 0 | |
4/29/2018 | 5/6/2018 | 5/12/2018 | 5/13/2018 | 5/19/2018 | 64 | 53 | 6 | 30 | 9% | 57% | BA | BA | BA | A | 1 | 0 | |
5/6/2018 | 5/13/2018 | 5/19/2018 | 5/20/2018 | 5/26/2018 | 53 | 60 | 30 | 12 | 57% | 20% | BA | BA | BA | A | 1 | 0 | |
5/13/2018 | 5/20/2018 | 5/26/2018 | 5/27/2018 | 6/2/2018 | 60 | 63 | 12 | 78 | 20% | 124% | BA | A | BA | BA | 1 | 0 | |
5/20/2018 | 5/27/2018 | 6/2/2018 | 6/3/2018 | 6/9/2018 | 63 | 63 | 78 | 21 | 124% | 33% | A | BA | BA | BA | 0 | 1 | |
5/27/2018 | 6/3/2018 | 6/9/2018 | 6/10/2018 | 6/16/2018 | 63 | 56 | 21 | 19 | 33% | 34% | BA | BA | BA | 1 | 1 | ||
6/3/2018 | 6/10/2018 | 6/16/2018 | 6/17/2018 | 6/23/2018 | 56 | 47 | 19 | 34% | BA | BA | 1 | ||||||
6/10/2018 | 6/17/2018 | 6/23/2018 | 6/24/2018 | 6/30/2018 | 47 | 42 | BA | BA | |||||||||
6/17/2018 | 6/24/2018 | 6/30/2018 | 42 | BA | |||||||||||||
All tornado report data is from the Storm Prediction Center and should be considered preliminary pending final review.
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Verification Legend |
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-1 |
0 |
1 |
More than 50%
of Normal Error |
No More than
50% of Normal Error |
Correct % of Normal
Threshold |
An information page with explanation of column headers can be found here.
Historical Contributors: John Allen | Brad Barrett | Victor Gensini | David Gold | Alan Marinaro | Paul Sirvatka | Mike Ventrice